Oil Jumps on Middle East Unrest as Dollar Strengthens

On Monday, October 12, Brent crude gained roughly 2% to trade near $106.80 a barrel as Gulf unrest and Middle East conflict heightened supply concerns. The oil advance reflected growing concern that unrest across the Gulf could disrupt regional energy supplies.

In metals, Gold -0.6% reflected pressure from a firmer dollar and higher energy prices. Precious metals saw subdued trading, as spot prices slipped while investors weighed higher energy costs against upcoming inflation data. While gold often attracts demand during geopolitical turmoil, rising energy costs and expectations of tight monetary policy limited its advance on the session.

In currency markets, the dollar hovered near an 18-month high on safe-haven demand ahead of inflation data. On Monday, the euro weakened against the dollar as fiscal uncertainty in France prompted investors to pull back. The yen weakened against the dollar during trading thinned by holidays.

In digital assets, Bitcoin 0.0% remained flat while Ethereum +0.2% edged higher, seeing little reaction to the macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions that moved physical commodities.

In overnight trading after Monday's close, precious metals moved further, with silver -0.7% and gold +0.3% recorded as of 10:20 am New York.

Looking ahead, several scheduled economic reports could provide clearer direction on inflation and borrowing costs. On Tuesday, scheduled reports include existing-home sales and the federal budget statement. On Wednesday, the federal government will publish the September Consumer Price Index alongside the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. On Thursday, scheduled releases include weekly jobless claims, September wholesale prices, and retail sales. The Thursday schedule also includes regional manufacturing surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks alongside business inventories. The week concludes on Friday with industrial production and capacity utilization figures, while several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to deliver public remarks throughout the week.